India TV-CNX poll predicts clear majority for Modi-led NDA with 318 seats if polls are held now

India TV-CNX Opinion poll: The Congress-led opposition combine INDIA may get 175 LS seats, and 'Others' including regional parties and independents, may get 50 seats, according to the projections.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi


India TV CNX Opinion poll :   If Lok Sabha elections are held now, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may win a clear majority with 318 Lok Sabha seats in a House of 543, according to India TV-CNX opinion poll projection, the results of which were broadcast on the news channel today in its special show "Desh Ki Awaaz."

According to predictions, the Congress-led opposition coalition INDIA may win 175 Lower House seats, while "Others," which might include regional parties and independents, could win 50 seats. 

According to the India TV-CNX opinion survey, the strength of Prime Minister Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha may drop from 303 to 290 this time. The largest opposition party, Congress, which currently holds 52 members, may boost that number to 66 this time around, according to the prediction.

With 29 seats, up seven from last time's total of 22, Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress may end up being the third-largest party in the Lok Sabha.With 18 seats, down from the 22 it won the previous election, the ruling YSR Congress party from Andhra Pradesh may end up as the fourth-largest party. 

If elections were held right away, the Shiv Sena (UBT) of Uddhav Thackeray might boost its representation from six to eleven, while the Aam Aadmi Party of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal might increase its representation from one LS seat to ten. 

The forecast indicates that the Biju Janata Dal of Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik could raise its vote total from 12 to 13. The Shiv Sena (Shinde), led by Maharashtra's chief minister Eknath Shinde, may see its membership drop from twelve to two. 

If elections were held right now, Uttar Pradesh, where the NDA may win 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, would be Modi's biggest victory. According to the election prediction, the opposition coalition INDIA may win the final seven seats in UP. 

According to the forecast, the BJP will win all 26 LS seats in Gujarat, all five LS seats in Uttarakhand, and 20 out of 28 LS seats in Karnataka, leaving seven seats for the INDIA alliance and one seat for Janata Dal (S).  

In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA coalition may win all 20 LS seats in Kerala and the TMC-led INDIA alliance may take 30 of the 42 seats in West Bengal, leaving the NDA to compete for the remaining 12 seats. 


Following is the breakup of LS seat projections by India TV-CNX opinion poll:

Total LS seats - 543, 

NDA 318, 
INDIA alliance 175, 
Others (including other parties and independents) - 50 seats

NDA includes BJP, AIADMK, Shiv Sena (Shinde), NCP(Ajit), PMK, NDPP, AINRC, NPP, SDF, RLJP,  LJP(R), HAM, Apna Dal, Nishad Party, MNF, AGP and other smaller parties. 

INDIA alliance includes Congress, TMC, DMK, RJD, JD-U, JMM, NCP(Sharad), Shiv Sena (UBT), National Conference, JKPDP, RSP, IUML, Kerala Congress (M), Samajwadi Party, AAP, Left Front, RLD and other smaller parties. 

'Others' include Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress, TDP, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, JD-S, BSP, AIUDF, AIMIM, Akali Dal, DPAP, independents and smaller parties. 

State-wise break-up

Uttar Pradesh (80): NDA 73, INDIA 7

Bihar (40):  NDA 24, INDIA 16

Maharashtra (48): NDA 24, INDIA 24 

Tamil Nadu (39): NDA 9 INDIA 30 

West Bengal (42): NDA 12, INDIA 30 

Karnataka (28): NDA 20, INDIA 7, Others 1

Gujarat (26): NDA 26, INDIA 0 

Kerala (20): NDA 0 , INDIA 20

Rajasthan (25): NDA 21, INDIA 4 

Andhra Pradesh (25): NDA 0, INDIA 0, Others 25

Odisha (21): NDA 8, INDIA 0, Others 13 

Madhya Pradesh (29): NDA 24, INDIA 5 

Telangana (17): NDA 6, INDIA 2, Others 9 

Assam(14): NDA 12, INDIA 1, Others 1 

Chhattisgarh(11): NDA 7, INDIA 4

Jharkhand (14): NDA 13, INDIA 1 

Haryana (10): NDA 8, INDIA 2 

Punjab (13): NDA 0, INDIA 13 

Delhi (7): NDA 5, INDIA 2 

Uttarakhand (5): NDA 5, INDIA 0 

J&K Ladakh (6): NDA 3, INDIA 2, Others 1 

Himachal Pradesh (4): NDA 3, INDIA 1 

Manipur (2): NDA 0, INDIA 2 

Other NE states (9): NDA 9, INDIA 0 

Goa (2): NDA 2 , INDIA 0 

Rest UT seats minus Ladakh(6): NDA 4, INDIA 2 

TOTAL 543, NDA 318, INDIA 175, OTHERS 50

Major party-wise breakup:

BJP 290, Congress 66, AAP 10, TMC 29, BJD 13, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 2, Shiv Sena (UBT) 11, Samajwadi Party 4, Bahujan Samaj Party 0, Rashtriya Janata Dal 7, Janata Dal-U  7, DMK 19, AIADMK 8, NCP(Sharad) 4, NCP(Ajit) 2, YSR Congress 18, TDP 7, Left Front 8, BRS 8, Others including independents 30, TOTAL 543 seats. 


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